Monterey: a new record. Beyond Comparisons, Pebble Beach auctions continue to fuel a strong passion
23 August 2023 4 min read 11 images
Photo credit: Bonhams, Broad Arrow Auctions, Gooding, Mecum, RM Sotheby’s
Cliff Goodall’s view
Monterey Week with the Pebble Beach auctions, a true barometer of the market, began this year with premises that should not be overlooked: a war that shows no sign of ending, high interest rates, sluggish inflation, a struggling Chinese GDP, and the Dow Jones falling for the third consecutive week – would these factors have influenced the results?
The total earnings for 2023 amounted to around $391,046,930. An extraordinary figure that changed hands in just three days of auctions, with the number of cars consistent with the previous year, a year that remains record-setting. I am deliberately discussing absolute figures; comparisons and percentages are useful for analysis, but what truly matters is the substance. And with these results, there was more than enough substance on offer. Fears of a perfect storm and the pessimistic naysayers were quickly disproven: no serious illness to report, just a slight fever manifested through a 12% drop in turnover, for some a little high, for others less so, but it’s hard to dispute that 2023 was yet another positive year. The table comparing 2022 and 2023 showcases the data from the five major auctions and should be interpreted without neglecting a significant psychological comparison: 2022 was blessed with a liberating post-Covid excitement, whereas this year brought with it the anxieties of an uncertain world seeking solutions but struggling to find them.
An equally noteworthy observation: if the 2022 Monterey Week auctions were the most successful event ever, this year’s results make 2023 the second most important event in history. Another record.
To better understand the sales of Monterey Week, it’s far more interesting to look at the data auction house by auction house. Let’s begin with Bonhams, which experienced a substantial leap compared to the previous year: revenue “soared” from $27,538,040 in 2012 to $55,182,940 in 2023. But an increase of over 100% in revenue has a very specific reason: this year, Bonhams offered (and sold) the Ferrari 412P – which we’ll get back to – for $30,255,000, more than the total sum of all lots offered in 2022. A more detailed analysis of this auction can be found below.
Broad Arrow doubled the number of cars on offer but understandably struggled to double the average price due to a more diverse range of cars in 2023. This explains why the 135 cars sold (out of 170 offered, 79.41%) represent nearly double the 69 cars (out of 89, 77.52%) from the previous year. However, revenue only increased by a modest 13.72% (from $47,977,400 to $54,562,490), and the average price experienced a notable decrease from $695,324 to $404,167.
Turning our attention to RM Sotheby’s, a seemingly minor yet immensely significant detail emerges: the reserve price. Imagine having a $10,000,000 car and offering it at auction with a reserve price of $9,500,000. Bids start at $5,000,000, go up to $6 million, surpass $7.5 million, and stall at $8,500,000. The auctioneer manages to push it to $8,750,000 but then it remains unsold. In the auction house’s balance sheet, the price isn’t $8,750,000 (a 12.5% drop from the estimate), but $0 – a 100% drop. This explains RM’s modest performance, passing from $217,204,800 last year to $150,758,500 this year: several lots came close to but did not meet their reserve prices, significantly impacting the final total, something that didn’t happen in 2022. It’s also worth remembering that the previous year marked the best-ever auction (not only for RM but for any historic car auction), and lightning rarely strikes twice in the same place.
Lastly, Gooding and Mecum, which had the lowest percentage of no-reserve lots but also targeted the market the most: Mecum employed a marketing tactic of reducing the number of cars offered (from 363 to 321) and carefully selecting those closely aligned with the event’s typical customer.
The average price only dropped 7% from $226,640 to $210,661, while Gooding, despite offering more cars (from 154 to 165), consistently lowered the average estimate from $928,000 to $805,000. Once again, the strategy involved focusing on cars with higher resale potential and, perhaps, gently influencing sellers toward more competitive price points. Although the auction didn’t achieve last year’s result, Gooding managed to mitigate losses, concluding at $93,887,950 compared to $104,451,000 in 2022.
To better understand the intensity of the 2023 automotive fever, let’s turn our attention to the individual lots – they hold the answers.
Bonhams, 18th August 2023
For now, let’s delve into Bonhams, the first and sole auction held over a single day, with its data presented above. Further analyses of the other major Pebble Beach auctions will follow on Sunday.
It would be logical to start with the highly anticipated 1967 Ferrari 412P. A very important racing car of the 1960s. However, I prefer to comment on this “anomalous” case in the Monterey universe at the end.
The other car worth watching was the Allard J2X, formerly owned by Steve McQueen. As mentioned, a J2X goes for between $280,000 and $350,000. Yet, the McQueen factor had historically inflated values of his vehicles up to threefold. The Allard stopped at $346,000, giving Steve McQueen a premium of 0% to 25%. Did the world go crazy? Perhaps, because even at RM, his Ferrari 275 GTB/4 was sold for $5,395,000 (estimated at $5m-$7m), 40% more than usual. However, a word of caution: the seller had bought it for over $10 million in 2013!
A new world record was also set for a 1957 AC Ace Bristol, which came second in class and tenth overall at the 1957 Le Mans 24 Hours (the best result ever for an Ace) of the same year. Originally estimated at $750,000-$950,000, it was sold for $764,000, perfectly in line with predictions.
Finally, a colourful note: anyone who has a passion for cars will have seen the Herbie saga, the Beetle with a personality of its own. In the first film, “Herbie the Love Bug,” what we would now call the villain of the story drives a powerful 1965 Thorndyke Special, actually an Apollo 5000GT. Only 76 were produced, and at Bonhams, one of the two examples used in the film with its unmistakable livery was available. Estimated at $175,000-$250,000, it stopped at $165,200, slightly lower, bringing a smile to all the Beetles across the world. As for my personal choice? I would undoubtedly have considered this one, or perhaps the 2002 BMW 540i Touring (E39) equipped with an M5 V8 engine at $75,040, or the 1957 Lancia Appia GTZ Zagato at $280,000.
Lastly, what can be said about the magnificent Ferrari 412P? Anticipation was high for it to set all manner of records, and the car was presented as entirely authentic: with matching numbers for the chassis, engine, gearbox, and original bodywork, impeccably restored. The auction process was meticulously curated to attract potential buyers. The final bid was $30,255,000. I have to admit that I had imagined a figure between $40 and $50 million. Perhaps that was too optimistic, as after the auction, some considered the amount correct. However, it was worth trying to understand.
One hypothesis is that the market is no longer as buoyant as before for this type of car. It’s possible, but certain masterpieces are timeless. However, in practical terms, what surprises is that the car, which raced semi-officially for Garage Francorchamps, lacked Ferrari Classiche certification. One might wonder, even if all the documents and data show no flaws, why a collector with a car of that value didn’t request the “supreme certificate” from the manufacturer. Regardless, before reaching deep into one’s wallet and parting with a sum that represents a significant investment, an additional assurance check might have been prudent. All things considered, the cost of certification would likely pale in comparison to the ultimate value paid. Who knows!
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