Auctions at Pebble Beach. The litmus test
09 August 2023 3 min read 11 images
Photo credit: Bonhams, Broad Arrow Auctions, Gooding, Mecum, RM Sotheby’s
Cliff Goodall’s view
Any talk of “what to follow” during the Monterey Car Week is complicated, not because there aren’t any interesting cars, but quite the opposite, there are too many!
While I could mention a hundred, let’s narrow it down to ten, or... better yet, eleven.
Chronologically, we should begin with Bonhams, set to offer a 1916 Stutz 4C Bearcat on Friday morning, with a very interesting market history. Just five months ago, Bonhams set a new world record for pre-war cars at Amelia Island with a 1912 Simplex. While this 1916 Stutz isn’t as rare as the 1914 version – currently offered by Gooding for $3m-$4m – it’s still a noteworthy find, given that a 1916 model hasn’t appeared in almost a decade when one sold for $330,000. With an estimate of $1.75m-$2m, the difference is enormous. However, a word of caution: Bonhams achieved a +97% over the estimate with the Simplex sale, which means that if there’s a “magic moment” again, it could set a new world record for a Stutz, such as the 1914 Bearcat at $2,920,000.
The other interesting car is a 1951 Allard J2X. Here, the car’s true value lies in its history and its association with the market. The car once belonged to Steve McQueen, the undisputed King of celebrity ownership premiums. Typically, it’s said that one-third of the value is attributed to the car, while two-thirds stem from McQueen’s ownership. Let’s do the math: a regular J2X ranges from $280,000 to $350,000. If we multiply that by three, that means this one might change hands for anywhere between $840,000 and $1,050,000. Bonhams’ estimate of $300,000-$400,000, without reserve, is clearly too low. What’s going on? At RM, the Ferrari 275 GTB/4 originally owned by the King of Cool himself will be offered for $5m-$7m (about 30% more than a regular one), while in 2014, the owner bought it for $10,175,000…
Now, let’s move on to RM. Here, I cheated a bit because I selected not two but... four interesting cars. The first is actually a trio with similar characteristics. Let’s start with the most expensive: the 1957 Jaguar XK-SS, with an estimate of $12m-$14m. This model hasn’t appeared at auction since 2017 (Gooding offered one at Amelia with an estimate of $13m-$16m, but it remained unsold at $11.9m), and the last sale 18 years ago at Gooding in Pebble Beach, went for $1,925,000. While the estimate appears stable, only time will tell if it surpasses expectations. However, I have doubts because the other two choices are a Jaguar C-Type and a D-Type, both much more common on the market (seven were auctioned in the last three years) with considerably lower estimates. The 1952 C-Type is expected to go for $3.5m-$4.25m (the lowest price since 2012), while the 1955 D-Type might reach $4.5m-$5.5m (considerably lower than the average of $5.7m-$6.7m in the last three years). But be aware: 5 cars were offered and all 5 went unsold.
Another car to watch closely is the 1997 Porsche 911 Turbo S from the Todd Blue collection, formerly owned by the famous Otis Chandler. With just 1850 miles on the clock and featuring the iconic “Paint to Sample” colour used by Chandler (the same as his Porsche 935), the estimate of $750,000-$950,000 appears ambitious, considering the current record stands at $649,000. Interestingly, in 2006, Chandler sold this car at auction to the Prime Minister of Kuwait for $141,000.
For Gooding, which is organizing auctions simultaneously with RM on Friday and Saturday, I have chosen as the most representative car a “normal” red Ferrari F40, one of 213 with American specifications, Ferrari Classiche Red Book certification, and just 1,800 miles on the clock. The estimate is $3m-$3.75m. Last year, Gooding set a record for this model at $3,965,000, for a remarkably similar example. However, the wider estimate range this time around indicates uncertainty about replicating the previous success. Still, it’s worth noting that in 2022, the estimate was $2.75m-$3.25m, but it flew well beyond that.
On the completely different side of the collector spectrum, we find what could be called the F40 of the 1930s: the 1933 Bugatti Type 55 Roadster. This car has always been at the top of collectors’ wishlists, and with an estimate of $8m-$10m, it is within reach of only the most affluent collectors. The market for Bugatti cars is incredibly stable: the record for this model ($10,400,000) was set in August 2016, and nothing has changed in almost a decade. With a bit of luck, it could even aim for the record for the most expensive Bugatti ever sold, with the current record standing slightly above $10.9 million.
At Broad Arrow, the 1954 Oldsmobile F88 Concept presents an intriguing challenge, albeit not an “easy” car to assess. Estimated at $2m-$3m, in 2006, Barrett-Jackson sold it to the Gateway Motor Museum in Colorado for $3,240,000. It will be interesting to see where it will go 17 years later.
The other proposal is a Honda with a stellar estimate. Of course, we’re not talking about a used Civic, but a 1995 NSX Type R, the Holy Grail of Honda cars. With only 483 ever produced, all in white, they have rightfully entered the highest echelons of collectors’ items. This one, with just 7,000 km on the clock, will not come cheap. But $550,000-$650,000 is a substantial amount of money, and if it sells, it will set a new record for a Japanese car (the first Honda we find is at $165,000, so make your comparisons).
The fifth auction of the event is Mecum, where I’d like to draw your attention to two relatively common yet intriguing cars. First, the 1963 Mercedes-Benz 300SL Roadster, featuring an aluminium-alloy block engine and disc brakes (only 209 units produced). In excellent condition, in its original colour with matching numbers, but the estimate of $2.1m-$2.5m would make it one of the most expensive 300SLs to date (to be precise, the fourth most expensive). Here’s another detail: none - not even the most expensive ones - have ever had a minimum estimate above $2,000,000, so this is already a small record, a sort of pole position achieved through meticulous calculations!
Similarly, the 1974 Dino 246 GTS at Mecum also claims the same pole position. The estimate of $650,000-$800,000 is the highest ever placed on a 246. Like the most expensive one ever sold ($967,500), it’s a chairs & flares model with low mileage (19,000 miles, while the one that set the record had 27,500) and is one of the last units produced. However, unlike the record-breaking one, it doesn’t come in a fantastic metallic pine green... An interesting challenge awaits!
So, these were ten distinct cars, each one unique, yet none of them represents the top lot of its respective auction. This was an intentional choice – it’s far too easy to talk about the most expensive car... then came the eleventh car, whose price could equal the sum of all the cars we’ve encountered so far...
I’m talking about the top lot at Bonhams: a 1967 Ferrari 412P Berlinetta with an impressive track record. Will it win again this time? The last one changed hands in 2000 for $5,616,000, a sum that was enough to buy 5 Ferrari 250 California SWBs or 28 Porsche 959s back then. Considering that a California SWB now costs around $10 million, and a 959 goes for between $1.5 and $2 million... well, I wouldn’t be surprised if it sets a new record for a car sold at a public auction (let’s not forget: the 300SLR was a private sale).
CLASSIC CAR MATCHER