Auctions: the American market has already started. What to expect?
06 January 2024 4 min read 10 images
Photo credit: Barrett-Jackson, Bonhams, Mecum, RM Sotheby’s
Cliff Goodall’s insightful predictions for the upcoming auctions. How will it go?
As the New Year festivities wind down, the auction scene is already taking off like a rocket with Mecum’s event in Kissimmee, which kicked off on 2nd January. Let’s explore what the upcoming auctions have lined up.
Beginning with the colossal Florida auction, which, yes, has already begun, but is set to continue until 14th January, with about 2,500 cars still to go. That’s right, 2,500 cars are yet to be auctioned, totalling 4,000.
Certainly, the market will be watching the trio of Ferraris from a single collection that would tantalize any enthusiast. The 1967 Ferrari 275 GTS/4 Nart Spider, the ninth of ten produced, comes in silver with a black interior and is Ferrari Classiche certified. The last time one appeared (in 2013) it had a price tag of $27.5m, has the price gone up or down now?
Then there’s the 1964 Ferrari 275 GTB/LM Competizione Speciale: sold in 2015 for $26.4m (the most expensive car at Pebble Beach that year). Since then, it has undergone a meticulous restoration, reviving its original livery. It’s the spiritual – and not only – successor of the Ferrari 250 GTO, which has proven to be resilient... but not too much. The question now is whether the seller will recoup their investment?
In comparison, the Ferrari 250 GT SWB California seems almost ordinary. In March, one sold for $18m, but it had a more appealing livery than this red variant. However, Mecum’s example is the last produced and (like the other) is complete with mandatory Ferrari Classiche certification. Will this one reach a figure starting with a two? A small note: the current record for any car sold by Mecum stands below $8m. This signals a significant shift in the auction landscape. The question is, are the buyers ready for it?
What else? Another noteworthy entry and one to follow is the 1966 Ford GT40 MkI road car. Only 30 produced, but this one has two aces up its sleeve: 13,442 miles on the clock and pristine condition. Then there’s its former owner, Umberto Maglioli, a famous driver, and its well-documented history. The price? It’s been a while since we’ve seen one, but the last one was offered in 2018 for between $3.5m-$4m. The world has changed in six years, and I could easily predict a higher valuation this time around.
Now let’s move to 20th January and fly east to Arizona! The classic Barrett-Jackson has already showcased its most prized pieces, which are on their way to Scottsdale. Attention Bugatti Chiron and Fast & Furious fans, especially TikTokers – get your cameras ready! A likely showstopper is the 2018 Bugatti Chiron, distinct in its blue-painted carbon colour scheme – a luxury that costs as much as a small nation’s GDP – in addition to other options costing the equivalent of the GDP of the neighbouring nation. However, finally, a Chiron that has been enjoyed: 4,295 miles is a huge number considering that most don’t exceed three digits. The estimate remains undisclosed – and as usual for Barrett-Jackson, it’s also without reserve – but I’m ready to bet it goes for somewhere between $2m-$3m.
The other notable car is much less expensive. We’re talking about the De Tomaso Pantera used in the beginning of the movie Fast Five. A standard Pantera goes for $80,000-$120,000, but the cinematic effect could multiply its value, especially considering the Fast & Furious franchise’s popularity among today’s younger audiences. The price is a real dilemma: could $300,000 be enough, or an overvaluation?
Let’s slide a bit further into the week and keep Thursday free because, still in Scottsdale, both RM and Bonhams will be presenting their coveted collections.
From RM, I’m eager to see the Porsche 918 Spider. We’ve encountered a couple in the last days of 2023. A white one sold during The White Collection for almost $4m, and a week later, a blue one went for just under $2m. They are respectively the most expensive and second-most expensive 918 Spiders to date. Now, this RM white one, similar to the $4m one, has an estimate of just $1.9m-$2.2m – a figure that seems almost modest in comparison...
At the other end of the spectrum, a Ferrari 250 GT Lusso caught my eye as a potential investment. The red colour for this 1963 model may not be the most fitting, but its single ownership since 1983 and modest 80,000 km on the clock (only 4,000 in the last 40 years) add to its appeal. The most striking aspect, however, is its estimate: $1m-$1.3m, an absolute steal and potentially the best deal of the entire auction. Not long ago, these cars were going for $2m, but it’s been at least a decade since one carried this estimate, suggesting either a strategic evaluation or a changing market trend.
From Bonhams, the top lot is expected to be a Mercedes-Benz 300SL Gullwing. Its charm lies in its simplicity: a standard colour (silver over red leather interior), a relatively unremarkable history (last owned for 50 years but that won’t add much to its value), and good but not outstanding condition. It’s an ordinary car in every way, but it’s exactly what we need to understand the market for these cars. For now, the estimate remains undisclosed, but unless there’s a surprise, don’t think of raising your paddle unless you’re prepared to part with at least one and a half million dollars.
Almost forgetting we’re in America, I believe another car to follow is the 1930 Cadillac Series 452 Roadster. Why this one? It’s a sector that might reveal some surprises. Pre-war cars are often written off and then unexpectedly fetch record prices. This Cadillac stands out for two enticing features: the V16 engine – like all 452s – and the fact that it’s been in the same family for over 90 years. But I should also add another point for us market watchers: at Amelia Island last March, this very car changed hands for $1.105m. Less than a year has passed, and I’m curious to see how its value has changed.
SUPERMIND TRIVIA